Disclaimer

Do your own due diligence first before investing. The writer will not be responsible for any capital loss as a result of reading this blog.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Asian Stock Markets Plunge


Wednesday January 16, 1:52 am ET
By Dikky Sinn, Associated Press Writer

Asian Markets Plunge on Worries That US Is Sliding Into Recession; Hang Seng Down 4 Percent HONG KONG (AP) -- Asian stock markets plunged Wednesday on growing speculation the U.S. economy -- a vital export market -- is sliding into a recession that could lead to a global slowdown.


Investors dumped stocks after an overnight sell-off in U.S. markets and on news that Citigroup Inc. had lost nearly $10 billion in the fourth quarter as it wrote down bad mortgage assets. Weak U.S. retail sales figures also added to the gloom, sending the Dow Jones industrial average down 277 points, or 2.2 percent.

"The moves on Wall Street signal fears that the U.S. is going into recession," said Rommel Macapagal, chairman of Westlink Global Equities in Manila, Philippines, where the market sank 2.7 percent.

Such concerns are becoming widespread in Asia, he said. "We're all looking for new support levels."

In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng index was down 4 percent at 24,815.61 in afternoon trading, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell 3.35 percent to close at 13,504.51 points.

Markets in Australia, China, South Korea and New Zeland also fell sharply on worries about slower growth in the U.S. and around the world.

The United States economy, battered by problems in the housing and credit markets, is a major export market for Asian companies, and weaker demand from American consumers will likely hurt profits at some of the region's companies. The U.S. Commerce Department said Tuesday that retail sales fell in December, and it revised the November figure lower.

Investors saw more fallout from the subprime mortgage market when Citigroup said Tuesday it had written down $18.1 billion for bad mortgage assets.

"The fallout from the Citigroup result is significant, with many saying ... there is more bad news to come," said Trent Muller, an ABN Amro Morgan analyst in Sydney, Australia. "We will see a bit of panic selling with a lot of investors taking cash off the table today."

There is also a growing fear that the Federal Reserve hasn't done enough to keep the U.S. economy going. The central bank has lowered its key interest rate by a full percentage point to 4.25 percent since early August.

Now many investors and analysts believe the Fed will cut rates by a half-point at its Jan. 29-30 meeting.

"The risks of a recession in the United States appear to have increased," said David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. "It's still clearly up in the air and that is reflected in the volatility that we see in the markets day-to-day. Every new headline can spook the market."

Japanese semiconductor stocks also fell after Intel Corp. shares plunged on concerns that the world's largest semiconductor maker is feeling the pinch of an ailing U.S. economy.

A surge in the yen, which hurts Japan's vital exporters, also depressed Tokyo stocks. The U.S. dollar fell to 106.02 yen, the lowest level in 2 1/2 years.

"The Tokyo market is very sensitive to the strong yen," said Tsuyoshi Nomaguchi, an analyst at Daiwa Securities Co. in Tokyo.

In China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.6 percent to 5,302.64 by midday. China shares, which are mostly isolated from world trends due to regulatory controls, have gained about 1 percent since the beginning of the year, compared with losses in several other Asian markets.

But worries over the U.S. economic outlook and possible lending curbs by the central bank have hurt bank shares.

"The market is divided over the potential impact the U.S. subprime crisis may have on China's economy, and Hong Kong's weak performance gave some jittery investors the final push to sell," said Essence Securities analyst Zhu Haibin.

Associated Press Writer Hrvoje Hranjski in Manila, and AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo, Elaine Kurtenbach in Shanghai and Thomas Hogue in Bangkok, Thailand, contributed to this report.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

The FTSE ST Series Of Market Indices

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), Singapore Exchange (SGX) and FTSE Group have jointly developed a new Straits Times Index (STI) as the Singapore stock market's main benchmark and created a family of new FTSE ST indices that will complement the STI.

The aim of the collaboration is to create a comprehensive suite of indices that will better reflect the performance of various sectors of the Singapore stock market and meet the needs of both retail and institutional investors. The revamped STI and the new FTSE ST Index Series will stimulate development of index-related products to serve diverse market needs. This in turn offers investors wider investment choices and opportunities in the Singapore market. With the availability of more indices, more listed companies can expect to be included in an index and achieve higher visibility with international fund managers and investors.

The new set of FTSE ST indices, which comprises the new STI and 18 new FTSE ST indices, were launched on 10 January 2008.

STRAITS TIMES INDEX (STI)

The STI now comprises 30 blue-chip companies on the SGX Mainboard ranked by market capitalisation as at 31 August 2007, which have passed the selection citeria outlined below. The constituents of the revamped STI can be found here

In line with FTSE's international methodology, these companies have been included based on the following criteria:

• Free Float. The free float of a listed company must be greater than 15%. The definition of "free float" includes portfolio investments, nominee holdings and holdings by investment companies.

• Liquidity. A stock must trade with a median daily turnover value of at least 0.05% of the value of its free float-adjusted shares in issue for at least 10 out of the last 12 months.


FTSE ST INDEX SERIES

The STI will be complemented by a new family of FTSE ST indices that will consist of 5 benchmark and 13 industry indices, including a new theme index to represent China stocks listed in Singapore. The new indices, by tracking the different sectors of the Singapore market, will help investors make better-informed investment decisions. The new indices will adopt FTSE's international methodology and will be based on the International Classification Benchmark (ICB), the globally renowned classification system created by Dow Jones Indices and FTSE. The use of the ICB will facilitate cross-border analysis and comparisons.

The full list of indices can be found here

To qualify for inclusion in any index, except the FTSE ST Fledgling Index, the market capitalisation of a listed company must fall within the top 98% by full market capitalisation of all SGX Mainboard companies.

The FTSE ST Fledgling Index includes all the other qualifying companies comprising the last 2% by full market capitalisation. These stocks are not screened for stock liquidity.

Constituents for the family of FTSE ST indices can be found here

GROUND RULES

The constituents of the STI and the new FTSE ST Index Series are reviewed semi-annually in accordance with a set of publicly available Ground Rules which can be found here

An advisory committee comprising of market practitioners, and/or representatives from SPH, SGX and FTSE undertakes the reviews. The first review is scheduled for September 2008.

Real time FTSE ST indices price.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Chapter 4: Investment and Speculation

General Connotations of the Term "Investment"

1) Putting or having money in a business. eg. A man "invests" $1000 in opening a grocery store.
Note, however, that it accepts rather than rejects the element of risk- the ordinary business investment is said to be made "at the risk of the business."

2) All securities(stocks, bonds, warrants, etc) are "investments".
No real distinction is made between investment and other types of financial operations such as speculation.

3) It is commonly thought that investment is good for everybody and at all times.
Such a distinction is generally taken for granted.

A Proposed Definition of Investment

An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principle and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.

The "safety" sought in investment is not absolute or complete; the word means, rather, protection against loss under all normal or reasonably likely conditions or variations.

Eg. A safe bond is one which would suffer default only under exceptional and highly improbable circumstances. Similarly, a safe stock is one which holds every prospect of being worth the price paid except under quite unlikely contingencies. Where study and experience indicate that a chance of loss must be recognised and allowed for, we have a speculative situation.

Additional Criterion of Investment

An investment operation is one that can be justified on both qualitative and quantitative(price) grounds.

Many have the misconception that "blue chips" were safe investments. They may be good quality stocks, but the public unconsciously assume that no price would be too high for a good stock. Carried to its logical extreme, such an issue was equally "safe" after it had advanced to 50 as it had been at 2. The issue then becomes speculative without quantitative grounds or a margin of safety in price.

Types of Speculation

1) Intelligent speculation- the taking of a risk that appears justified after careful weighing of the pros and cons.

2) Unintelligent speculation- risk taking without adequate study of the situation

Margin-of-Safety concept

In the case of bond or preferred-stock investment this margin is usually represented by the excess of earning power over interest or dividend requirements, or of the value of enterprise above the senior claims against it.

In the case of a common stock it should be represented either by the excess of calculated intrinsic value over the price paid, or else by excess of expected earnings and dividends for a period of years above a normal interest return.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Portfolio 2007

Straits Times Index(STI) closed at 3,482.30 higher for the year 2007, which is an increase of 16.63% excluding dividends.

The 10 year annualised return for the STI is approx. 8.93% taken from fundsupermart. The average investor who diversifies would also expect to get almost the same results like 9-10% p.a. over the long term.

The STI alone is not a good indicator of measuring performance because investors cannot buy the STI. Instead investors will have to buy streetTRACKS Straits Times Index Fund(an exchange traded fund-STI ETF) listed on 17th Apr'02 designed to track the performance of the STI. Its objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the performance of the STI. To provide a fair computation of the performance of the STI ETF, we should use its NAV from 3rd Jan'03 $14.05 as a base. The closing price for STI ETF for the year is $36.99. Total dividends received for the last 5 years is $3.33. Hence the annualised return for STI ETF is 32.7% and 37.4% including dividends, excluding management fee of 0.3% p.a. Also take note that the STI ETF is approximately 1/100th of the STI.

Some may ask why the large discrepancy in the annualised return of the STI and STI ETF? The reason is that STI ETF is only set up 5 years ago and these 5 years are bullish years. Another reason is that the STI ETF closed at $36.99 which is $2.17 or 6.22% higher than the STI. Market sentiments are still bullish which contributes to the bidding up of prices higher than the STI. As such I should also provide the previous 5 years annualised return of the STI which is 19.47% excluding dividends. To conclude, the management of STI ETF did 13.23% excluding dividends better than the STI by trying to mimic its share holdings.

STI ETF vs investment funds that invest in the Singapore market

To prove that the STI and STI ETF are no pushover, let us look at some of the funds that invest in the Singapore market. On average some of the funds like Aberdeen Singapore Equity, Schroder Singapore Trust and UOB United Growth Fund managed an annualised return of 20-22% over the last 5 years. The funds managed to beat the STI by 1-2%, however if fund management fees between 1-2% p.a. were included, their performance were only average or maybe some below average. Needless to say comparing the funds with STI ETF. Only DBS Shenton Thrift managed to get close with 29.88% annual returns over 5 years and 2nd runner up would be Lion Capital Singapore Trust with 26.06% annual return over the last 5 years too. Hence none managed to beat the STI ETF which did no stock pickings but merely imitate the stock holdings of the STI. This further proves what Warren Buffett said that it is better to invest in index funds as only 1-2% of fund managers globally managed to beat the index. Index funds also charge much lower management fees than investment funds.

Note: Fund % figures were taken from fundsupermart between the date of 31st Dec'07-2nd Jan'08.

Yardstick

Like most things we do everyday, we should have a yardstick to measure performance. I hope to do better in bear markets than in bull markets as I'm looking for companies with good future prospects at depressed market prices. I would be happy if my portfolio can outperform the STI ETF by 10% each year. For example the STI ETF this year gained 22.1%, I would do well if I can achieve >32.1% gain in portfolio for the year. I also consider in a year whereby my portfolio is down 20% and the STI ETF down 30% to be a better year.

Stock holdings

1) Kingsmen (145.9% gain)
Bought: $6,000
Market value at 31st Dec'07: $14,400-$45.62(trading fee) +$400(dividends)=$14,754.38

Reason why I buy: Bought at low P/E, industry leader, foresee many contracts in IR and F1, improving earnings and unnoticed by the market.

2) ChinaACorp (17.8% loss)
Bought: $2,500
Market value at 31st Dec'07: $2,100-$44.07(trading fee)=$2,055.93

Reason why I buy: Purely speculative by listening to Dad saying some 'big shot' buying tonnes of it. Could not find its financial statements. Formerly Acma Ltd.

Total portfolio market value at 31st Dec'07: $16,810.31 (97.8% gain)

Past performance is not a good gauge for future performance.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Maybe, it's about time to flush out the newbies from the stock market?

Read an interesting posting from Channel NewsAsia forums about this topic. It's really amusing.


Bullish sentiment
Volatile market

Due to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis this year, the market turned bearish for a while. And then the Fed decided to cut interest rates to try to remedy the market causing investors to turn bullish for a moment. Thinking that it's all over? The media decided to add in some bad news and occasionally some good news to enlighten the market of their current situation(it stimulates their income as they sell more papers too!). This brings investors on a roller coaster ride. Weeee! Woooo! Ahhhh...............!


Bearish sentiment
Newbie

In terms of experience, I'm still a newbie as I have only started investing early this year with real cash. However, my investing mindset does not put me in a newbie position. I'm value orientated while most are in it for a quick profit. I've been eagerly reading up investment books for the past 2 years which taught me to invest for the long term and not speculate. I also learnt to analyse financial statements to make good investment decisions.

If you noticed, most decent company stocks especially small caps increased 1-2 times from the start of the year. Some stocks have even rose 6 times their initial price! No wonder those aunties, uncles and Ah Dis(young boy, like me) are bragging about their investment profits. It is easy to make money in a bull market as most stocks will rise(like how hot air rises) and not much skill is required. One can make some profit by throwing darts to pick stocks. However when you are in a bear market, its a different story. Newbies will panic when prices start to drop fast. One of the irrational things they do would be to follow the herd and sell at a loss. Worst still if they used leverage like contra or margin, their losses would be higher.

The bull climbs up the stairs of the building while the bear jumps out of the window.

As a value investor, if the fundamentals of the company does not change and the price is cheaper now, I would increase my positions.

Conclusion

It's time that newbies learn a lesson not to speculate and look for hot stock tips. They should do their own research before buying. In the long run, they would do reasonably well provided that they don't buy at rocket prices. Whether they can beat the market in the long run is another story.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Chapter 3: The Behaviour of the Security Markets

The price to be paid or received for a security is an integral part of any complete analysis. We do not believe that short-run price movements--the day-to-day or month-to-month variations--are a valid or profitable concern. But the broader concept of business cycles should not be left out.

The relationship between Intrinsic Value and Market Price



The chart above traces various factors like speculation and valuation which contributes to the market price. Rather we should say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.

Undervalued Situations When The Market Appears High

When the general market is high there are always a number of individual issues that appear undervalued. One maybe tempted to buy these issues. But that is a time that calls for especial caution. Not only may the 'neglected issue' continue neglected for the remainder of the bull market, but when the downturn comes it is likely to decline in price along with the general market and to fully as great as an extent.

In a word, beware of 'bargains' when most stocks seem very high.

The Factor Of Marketability

The speculator or market trader has a real need for marketability because he may want to buy or sell in a few minutes' time. The typical investor has no similar requirement. It is better to sacrifice quick marketability to attract value rather than vice versa. For every point lost in the spread between bids and offers, the buyers of a true bargain issue may expect to gain perhaps 10 points in increased dividend returns plus ultimate improvement in selling price.

Much of the emphasis on marketability comes from the stock-brokerage business. Brokers are in business to earn commissions. It is easier for them to get orders in active than in inactive stocks. Hence, they are likely to overemphasize the popular and active issues in their work. This attitude tends to create something of a vicious cycle, since it makes active issues more active and inactive ones more inactive.

Summary

The security analyst should be concerned with those fluctuations in security prices which tend to create opportunities to buy at less than indicated value and to sell at more than such value.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Chapter 2: The Scope & Limitations of Security Analysis

'Analysis' connotes the careful study of available facts with the attempt to draw conclusions therefrom based on established principles and sound logic. It is part of the scientific method. But in applying analysis to the field of securities we encounter the serious obstacle that investment is by nature not an exact science. Individual skill (art) and chance are important factors in determining success or failure. Nevertheless, analysis is not only useful but indispensable in the field of investment and possible in that of speculation.

Three functions of security analysis:

Descriptive function- Make adjustments in the financial figures to bring out the true operating results in the period covered, and particularly in order to place the data of a number of companies on a fairly comparable plane. Evaluation of favorable and unfavorable factors in the position of the issue compared with others in the same field, also projections of earning power on various assumptions as to future conditions.

Selective function- Pass judgment on the merits of securities.

1) Bonds and preferred stocks- Make sure that interest payments will be met in the future without difficulty or doubt through an ample margin of safety in the past to protect against possible adverse developments that lie ahead.

2) Common stock- Selecting those that will pay a good return or increase in price or both. There are 2 approaches. The older approach places its chief emphasis on anticipation of an increase in price of the stock in the longer term, whereby, the present market is by and large an appropriate reflection of the present situation of the stock. The newer approach attempts to value a common stock independently of its market price. If the 'intrinsic value' found is substantially above or below the current price, the analyst concludes that the issue should be bought or sold.

A general definition of intrinsic value would be 'that value which is justified by assets, earnings, dividends, definite prospects'. The most important single factor determining value is now held to be the indicated average future earning power. Intrinsic value would then be found by first estimating this earning power, and then multiplying that estimate by an appropriate 'capitalisation factor' or multiplier.

"Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised." --Warren Buffett

Critical function- Security analysis may be competent to express critical judgments, looking to the avoidance of mistakes, to the correction of abuses, and to the better protection of those owning bonds or stocks. Questions largely dependent upon the act of management include capitalisation setup, dividend and expansion policies, managerial competence and compensation, and even continuing or liquidating an unprofitable business.