Forex 16/03/09 to 20/03/09

Japan bank holiday today and currencies didn't move much, decided to close for the week. It is always better to under-trade than over-trade. Two of the trades did not move how I imagined it to be, the price action was acting weird, so I closed out the positions. The other trade was a big bang, holding it for 3 days.

Total No. of Trades = 3
Accuracy = 2/3= 66.7%
Win-Loss ($) = 44.12-0.06= 44.06
Average Win ($) = 22.06
Average Loss ($) = 0.06
Max Win($) = 43.62
Max Loss($) = 0.06
Pips = 442
Capital left(Using $500 fake money, $) = 483.87

Thinking back, computing performance is much easier with just a few trades. Why make my life so difficult trading so many positions? =D

Walking in the dark and found light

The past 2 weeks of trading forex was an eye opener. I was walking in the dark and now found light again. Here are some of the lessons.

1) There is no perfect system, if you are looking for the "holy grail", there is none. You might find answers when you look into the mirror.

2) Price action is king, indicators are just guides, does not mean that they are not useful. Train your naked eye to look at price actions, you dont need a trend line to tell you where the trend is.

3) Patience, patience, patience- Yes! A trader needs lots of patience, he needs to wait for the big move, the signal, when most factors/probabilities are with him.

4) Trading doesnt mean more activity. When it gets too exciting, you are walking on the wrong path. It should be boring and dull. Trading more is actually bad.

5) Anything less than H4 chart is just noise. Know how to differentiate between signals and noise.

6) Let your profits ride, cut your losses fast. Money management is crucial, you can lose 7 out of 10 times and still make money.

7) Look out for sharks in support/resistance levels, round numbers like 100 or 500, psychological levels like Dow 7000 level. Sharks will trigger your stop loss at these levels, making false break outs or break downs. When they have cleared the amateurs out, they will continue on their buying or selling where there is less competition.

8) Be the predator and not the prey.

9) Keep a ear of news on the ground. When looking at retracements, is it a normal reaction or an abnormal one?

10) Do not trade when crucial news is going to be released. Wait for the release and see how it goes before you take the position.

Forex 02/03/09 - 06/03/09 (Still walking in the dark like last week)

Total No. of Trades = 20
Accuracy = 5/20= 25%
Win-Loss ($) = 2.61/45.62= -43.01
Average Win ($) = 0.52
Average Loss ($) = 3.04
Max Win($) = 1.4
Max Loss($) = 13.82
Pips = -351

Here is where I found enlightenment. Learning how to fish with dream's help. Many thanks.
http://triple-screentrading.blogspot.com/

And here, Feb2865 the pro trader. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=54528

Forex 09/03/09 - 13/03/09 (After I learnt the lessons from above. Still need to cut down on the number of trades)
Total No. of Trades = 14
Accuracy = 9/14= 64.3%
Win-Loss ($) = 17.86-12.04= 5.82
Average Win ($) = 1.98
Average Loss ($) = 2.41
Max Win($) = 8.85
Max Loss($) = 4.40
Pips = 74
Capital left(Using $500 fake money, $) = 439.81

Forex 23/02/08 to 27/02/08

The week was very volatile. Some of the currency pairs were trading at weekly or monthly resistance and support lines. This is one thing which I must take note and incorporate into the system. Another issue that breeds the lousy performance is my risk management skill. Many times I was in 50-100 pips profits and then it turned it's back on me. I need to take profits when I can and maybe trade 2 lots and cash out on one and let it run.

Here are the week's result.

Total No. of Trades = 121
Accuracy = 43/121=35.5%
Win/Loss ($) = 135.92/158.92= 0.86
Average Win ($) = 3.16
Average Loss ($) = 2.04
Max Win($) = 15.27
Max Loss($) = 5.2
Pips = -259
Gains/Losses ($) = -23
Capital left(Using $500 fake money, $) = 477

Harvest of reverse pips!

Today is a great harvest of reverse 205 pips from the genius. Don't worry this is not the last! :DLesson 1: Stick to the system's top down approach of looking at 4hr chart first then to 30min chart and 5min chart. If 30min chart is in a reverse trend of 4hr, enter with 30min chart.

Lesson 2: Do not anticipate the trend, let it happen first and give you the buy signal before you enter.

Lesson 3: Do not be competent, stick strictly to the system.

Lesson 4: When you missed the entry and the price had spiked, do not enter but wait for the next entry.

Total No. of Trades = 39
Accuracy = 30.7%
Win/Loss ($)= 28.69/52.75=0.54
Average Win ($)= 2.39
Average Loss ($) = 1.95
Max Win($)= 7.18
Max Loss($)= 6.92

Forex Trade 23/02/09

Here are my results for today using the system if I were to trade for real. 1 lot equals to $5 used margin. Total 25 trades, 15 wins 10 losses. Made 519 pips which totals $57.56 demo money for today. Will try out the system for a month or 2 and see if I'm consistent. This good result might not happen again.


Let us look at biggest mistake first EUR/USD 25 pips loss. At the 4hr chart the red circle shows a classic uptrend that went out of steam. I coloured the red box because it is there initially. Confirmed downtrend.
EUR/USD 30min chart also confirms downtrend.

Once we confirm that the 4hr and 30min chart is in downtrend, we enter using the 5min chart at the red arrow where it breaks and forms a LL. Stop loss is at the green line where the wave pivots. So when it forms another HL and LL(downtrend), I shifted my stop loss to the blue line which I should not because it is too narrow. The end result is obvious and I missed the wave downwards, it pays to be patient. I committed the same mistakes for the other losses too with a too narrow stop loss for HL to form in downtrend and LH to form in an uptrend. Only 1 or 2 trades were stopped out which shows that my opinon at that time is wrong.
Now let us look at the biggest gain, GBP/JPY 145pips win. After 4hr and 30min uptrend is confirmed, I look at the 5min chart for entry. The green line B indicates a buy signal when it breaks the HH. The wave at the HL(red line 1) is the stop limit. As it forms a HL and breaks another HH, I shift my stop loss to red line 2. At the price reverse between red line 3 &4, I noticed that the JPY pairs are reversing at the same time, that is when I took the profits. When the candle hits another HH again, I entered at higher B(green line). Placing stop limits at each HL and HH formed as shown in red line 4,5,6. Sold off at the top when I felt that the price action is not right and is toppish again.
Total No. of Trades = 25
Accuracy = 60%
Win/Loss ($)= 72.79/15.23=4.78
Average Win ($)= 4.85
Average Loss ($) = 1.52
Max Win($)= 15.27
Max Loss($)= 2.50

Forex Trade EUR/USD 20/02/09

Recently I've been learning how to trade forex. Here is my newbie experience using demo account with the 5min wave analysis from Brian8182. This is a play account, from today onwards I will trade as if I'm trading with real money, with money I can afford to lose and not punt money like the trades shown below.

The top are the most recent trades, let me start from the top for easy referencing.

1) EUR/USD 4hr chart: Look for trend Higher-Highs and Higher-Lows of candle. A very clear uptrend here breakout at 1.2758. I could have entered earlier at 1.2646 as it confirms the uptrend, missed that wave. As long as it is an uptrend and not ranging, we then proceed to look at 30min chart, don't have to look for breakout of the wave.

EUR/USD 30min chart: Confirms uptrend at 1.2758 breakout. Could have entered earlier when it breakout at 1.2653.

EUR/USD 5min chart: Enter trade on next HH of candle wave. Could have done better as mentioned earlier, look at the previous run up. Took profits too early at 1.2822, 30pips. Should let the profits run until there is a clear sign of wave reversal then take profits.


I still have not grasp the concept yet, as you can see my thoughts are not very clear. Still learning. I missed out on the earlier entry and entry at 1.2653 is the correct one. Cut loss should be at the previous wave valley at the base line of chart.